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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.